The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

The partial oxidation of methane over Pd/Al2O3 catalyst nanoparticles studied in-situ by near ambient-pressure x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

Near ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP-XPS) is used to study the chemical state of methane oxidation catalysts in-situ. Al2O3{supported Pd catalysts are prepared with different particle sizes ranging from 4 nm to 10 nm. These catalysts were exposed to conditions similar to those used in the partial oxidation of methane (POM) to syn-gas and simultaneously monitored by NAP-XPS and mass spectrometry. NAP-XPS data show changes in the oxidation state of the palladium as the temperature in- creases, from metallic Pd0 to PdO, and back to Pd0. Mass spectrometry shows an increase in CO production whilst the Pd is in the oxide phase, and the metal is reduced back under presence of newly formed H2. A particle size effect is observed, such that CH4 conversion starts at lower temperatures with larger sized particles from 6 nm to 10 nm. We find that all nanoparticles begin CH4 conversion at lower temperatures than polycrystalline Pd foil.

Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models

A combination of satellite data, reanalysis products and climate models are combined to monitor changes in water vapour, clear-sky radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation over the period 1979-2006. Climate models are able to simulate observed increases in column integrated water vapour (CWV) with surface temperature (Ts) over the ocean. Changes in the observing system lead to spurious variability in water vapour and clear-sky longwave radiation in reanalysis products. Nevertheless all products considered exhibit a robust increase in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling from the atmosphere to the surface; clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere is found to increase with Ts at the rate of ~4 Wm-2 K-1 over tropical ocean regions of mean descending vertical motion. Precipitation (P) is tightly coupled to atmospheric radiative cooling rates and this implies an increase in P with warming at a slower rate than the observed increases in CWV. Since convective precipitation depends on moisture convergence, the above implies enhanced precipitation over convective regions and reduced precipitation over convectively suppressed regimes. To quantify this response, observed and simulated changes in precipitation rate are analysed separately over regions of mean ascending and descending vertical motion over the tropics. The observed response is found to be substantially larger than the model simulations and climate change projections. It is currently not clear whether this is due to deficiencies in model parametrizations or errors in satellite retrievals.

Running Climate Models On The NERC Cluster Grid Using G-Rex

Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them usually involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. For example, NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) is a state-of-the-art ocean model that is used currently for operational ocean forecasting in France, and will soon be used in the UK for both ocean forecasting and climate modelling. On a typical modern cluster, a particular one year global ocean simulation at 1-degree resolution takes about three hours when running on 40 processors, and produces roughly 20 GB of output as 50000 separate files. 50-year simulations are common, during which the model is resubmitted as a new job after each year. Running NEMO relies on a set of complicated shell scripts and command utilities for data pre-processing and post-processing prior to job resubmission. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) is a pure Java grid middleware system that allows scientific applications to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems, and then launched and controlled as if they are running on the user's own computer. Although G-Rex is general purpose middleware it has two key features that make it particularly suitable for remote execution of climate models: (1) Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model; (2) The client component is a command-line program that can easily be incorporated into existing model work-flow scripts. G-Rex has a REST (Fielding, 2000) architectural style, which allows client programs to be very simple and lightweight and allows users to interact with model runs using only a basic HTTP client (such as a Web browser or the curl utility) if they wish. This design also allows for new client interfaces to be developed in other programming languages with relatively little effort. The G-Rex server is a standard Web application that runs inside a servlet container such as Apache Tomcat and is therefore easy to install and maintain by system administrators. G-Rex is employed as the middleware for the NERC1 Cluster Grid, a small grid of HPC2 clusters belonging to collaborating NERC research institutes. Currently the NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) and POLCOMS (Holt et al, 2008) ocean models are installed, and there are plans to install the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model for use in the decadal climate prediction project GCEP (Haines et al., 2008). The science projects involving NEMO on the Grid have a particular focus on data assimilation (Smith et al. 2008), a technique that involves constraining model simulations with observations. The POLCOMS model will play an important part in the GCOMS project (Holt et al, 2008), which aims to simulate the world’s coastal oceans. A typical use of G-Rex by a scientist to run a climate model on the NERC Cluster Grid proceeds as follows :(1) The scientist prepares input files on his or her local machine. (2) Using information provided by the Grid’s Ganglia3 monitoring system, the scientist selects an appropriate compute resource. (3) The scientist runs the relevant workflow script on his or her local machine. This is unmodified except that calls to run the model (e.g. with “mpirun”) are simply replaced with calls to "GRexRun" (4) The G-Rex middleware automatically handles the uploading of input files to the remote resource, and the downloading of output files back to the user, including their deletion from the remote system, during the run. (5) The scientist monitors the output files, using familiar analysis and visualization tools on his or her own local machine. G-Rex is well suited to climate modelling because it addresses many of the middleware usability issues that have led to limited uptake of grid computing by climate scientists. It is a lightweight, low-impact and easy-to-install solution that is currently designed for use in relatively small grids such as the NERC Cluster Grid. A current topic of research is the use of G-Rex as an easy-to-use front-end to larger-scale Grid resources such as the UK National Grid service.

On the energetics of stratified turbulent mixing, irreversible thermodynamics, Boussinesq models and the ocean heat engine controversy

In this paper, the available potential energy (APE) framework of Winters et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 289, 1995, p. 115) is extended to the fully compressible Navier– Stokes equations, with the aims of clarifying (i) the nature of the energy conversions taking place in turbulent thermally stratified fluids; and (ii) the role of surface buoyancy fluxes in the Munk & Wunsch (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 45, 1998, p. 1977) constraint on the mechanical energy sources of stirring required to maintain diapycnal mixing in the oceans. The new framework reveals that the observed turbulent rate of increase in the background gravitational potential energy GPEr , commonly thought to occur at the expense of the diffusively dissipated APE, actually occurs at the expense of internal energy, as in the laminar case. The APE dissipated by molecular diffusion, on the other hand, is found to be converted into internal energy (IE), similar to the viscously dissipated kinetic energy KE. Turbulent stirring, therefore, does not introduce a new APE/GPEr mechanical-to-mechanical energy conversion, but simply enhances the existing IE/GPEr conversion rate, in addition to enhancing the viscous dissipation and the entropy production rates. This, in turn, implies that molecular diffusion contributes to the dissipation of the available mechanical energy ME =APE +KE, along with viscous dissipation. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the concepts of mixing efficiency γmixing and flux Richardson number Rf , for which new physically based definitions are proposed and contrasted with previous definitions. The new framework allows for a more rigorous and general re-derivation from the first principles of Munk & Wunsch (1998, hereafter MW98)’s constraint, also valid for a non-Boussinesq ocean: G(KE) ≈ 1 − ξ Rf ξ Rf Wr, forcing = 1 + (1 − ξ )γmixing ξ γmixing Wr, forcing , where G(KE) is the work rate done by the mechanical forcing, Wr, forcing is the rate of loss of GPEr due to high-latitude cooling and ξ is a nonlinearity parameter such that ξ =1 for a linear equation of state (as considered by MW98), but ξ <1 otherwise. The most important result is that G(APE), the work rate done by the surface buoyancy fluxes, must be numerically as large as Wr, forcing and, therefore, as important as the mechanical forcing in stirring and driving the oceans. As a consequence, the overall mixing efficiency of the oceans is likely to be larger than the value γmixing =0.2 presently used, thereby possibly eliminating the apparent shortfall in mechanical stirring energy that results from using γmixing =0.2 in the above formula.

In vitro evaluation of the microbiota modulation abilities of different sized whole oat grain flakes.

Epidemiological studies and healthy eating guidelines suggest a positive correlation between ingestion of whole grain cereal and food rich in fibre with protection from chronic diseases. The prebiotic potential of whole grains may be related, however, little is known about the microbiota modulatory capability of oat grain or the impact processing has on this ability. In this study the fermentation profile of whole grain oat flakes, processed to produce two different sized flakes (small and large), by human faecal microbiota was investigated in vitro. Simulated digestion and subsequent fermentation by gut bacteria was investigated using pH controlled faecal batch cultures inoculated with human faecal slurry. The different sized oat flakes, Oat 23’s (0.53–0.63 mm) and Oat 25’s/26’s (0.85–1.0 mm) were compared to oligofructose, a confirmed prebiotic, and cellulose, a poorly fermented carbohydrate. Bacterial enumeration was carried out using the culture independent technique, fluorescent in situ hybridisation, and short chain fatty acid (SCFA) production monitored by gas chromatography. Significant changes in total bacterial populations were observed after 24 h incubation for all substrates except Oat 23’s and cellulose. Oats 23’s fermentation resulted in a significant increase in the Bacteroides–Prevotella group. Oligofructose and Oats 25’s/26’s produced significant increases in Bifidobacterium in the latter stages of fermentation while numbers declined for Oats 23’s between 5 h and 24 h. This is possibly due to the smaller surface area of the larger flakes inhibiting the simulated digestion, which may have resulted in increased levels of resistant starch (Bifidobacterium are known to ferment this dietary fibre). Fermentation of Oat 25’s/26’s resulted in a propionate rich SCFA profile and a significant increase in butyrate, which have both been linked to benefiting host health. The smaller sized oats did not produce a significant increase in butyrate concentration. This study shows for the first time the impact of oat grain on the microbial ecology of the human gut and its potential to beneficially modulate the gut microbiota through increasing Bifidobacterium population.

Using Doppler radar with a simple explicit microphysics model to diagnose problems with ice sublimation depth-scales in forecast models

Several previous studies have attempted to assess the sublimation depth-scales of ice particles from clouds into clear air. Upon examining the sublimation depth-scales in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), it was found that the MetUM has evaporation depth-scales 2–3 times larger than radar observations. Similar results can be seen in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Météo-France models. In this study, we use radar simulation (converting model variables into radar observations) and one-dimensional explicit microphysics numerical modelling to test and diagnose the cause of the deep sublimation depth-scales in the forecast model. The MetUM data and parametrization scheme are used to predict terminal velocity, which can be compared with the observed Doppler velocity. This can then be used to test the hypothesis as to why the sublimation depth-scale is too large within the MetUM. Turbulence could lead to dry air entrainment and higher evaporation rates; particle density may be wrong, particle capacitance may be too high and lead to incorrect evaporation rates or the humidity within the sublimating layer may be incorrectly represented. We show that the most likely cause of deep sublimation zones is an incorrect representation of model humidity in the layer. This is tested further by using a one-dimensional explicit microphysics model, which tests the sensitivity of ice sublimation to key atmospheric variables and is capable of including sonde and radar measurements to simulate real cases. Results suggest that the MetUM grid resolution at ice cloud altitudes is not sufficient enough to maintain the sharp drop in humidity that is observed in the sublimation zone.

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for high resolution nested models

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) is used in environmental prediction to estimate the state of a system from measurements. When 4D-Var is applied in the context of high resolution nested models, problems may arise in the representation of spatial scales longer than the domain of the model. In this paper we study how well 4D-Var is able to estimate the whole range of spatial scales present in one-way nested models. Using a model of the one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation we show that small spatial scales that are observed can be captured by a 4D-Var assimilation, but that information in the larger scales may be degraded. We propose a modification to 4D-Var which allows a better representation of these larger scales.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

Particle image velocimetry measurements of turbulent flow within outdoor and indoor urban scale models and flushing motions in urban canopy layers

We investigate the spatial characteristics of urban-like canopy flow by applying particle image velocimetry (PIV) to atmospheric turbulence. The study site was a Comprehensive Outdoor Scale MOdel (COSMO) experiment for urban climate in Japan. The PIV system captured the two-dimensional flow field within the canopy layer continuously for an hour with a sampling frequency of 30 Hz, thereby providing reliable outdoor turbulence statistics. PIV measurements in a wind-tunnel facility using similar roughness geometry, but with a lower sampling frequency of 4 Hz, were also done for comparison. The turbulent momentum flux from COSMO, and the wind tunnel showed similar values and distributions when scaled using friction velocity. Some different characteristics between outdoor and indoor flow fields were mainly caused by the larger fluctuations in wind direction for the atmospheric turbulence. The focus of the analysis is on a variety of instantaneous turbulent flow structures. One remarkable flow structure is termed 'flushing', that is, a large-scale upward motion prevailing across the whole vertical cross-section of a building gap. This is observed intermittently, whereby tracer particles are flushed vertically out from the canopy layer. Flushing phenomena are also observed in the wind tunnel where there is neither thermal stratification nor outer-layer turbulence. It is suggested that flushing phenomena are correlated with the passing of large-scale low-momentum regions above the canopy.

The influence of eddy parameterizations on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in coupled climate models

The transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) varies strongly across the coupled GCMs (general circulation models) used for the IPCC AR4. This note shows that a large fraction of this across-model variance can be explained by relating it to the parameterization of eddy-induced transports. In the majority of models this parameterization is based on the study by Gent and McWilliams (1990). The main parameter is the quasi-Stokes diffusivity kappa (often referred to less accurately as ’’thickness diffusion’’). The ACC transport and the meridional density gradient both correlate strongly with kappa across those models where kappa is a prescribed constant. In contrast, there is no correlation with the isopycnal diffusivity jiso across the models. The sensitivity of the ACC transport to kappa is larger than to the zonal wind stress maximum. Experiments with the fast GCM FAMOUS show that changing kappa directly affects the ACC transport by changing the density structure throughout the water column. Our results suggest that this limits the role of the wind stress magnitude in setting the ACC transport in FAMOUS. The sensitivities of the ACC and the meridional density gradient are very similar across the AR4 GCMs (for those models where kappa is a prescribed constant) and among the FAMOUS experiments. The strong sensitivity of the ACC transport to kappa needs careful assessment in climate models.

Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models

Trends in the position of the DJF Austral jet have been analysed for multi-model ensemble simulations of a subset of high- and low-top models for the periods 1960-2000, 2000-2050, and 2050-2098 under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparison with ERA-Interim, CFSR and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows that the DJF and annual mean jet positions in CMIP5 models are equatorward of reanalyses for the 1979-2006 mean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the mean jet position in the high-top models moves 3 degrees poleward of its 1860-1900 position by 2098, compared to just over 2 degrees for the low-top models. Changes in jet position are linked to changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Compared to low-top models, the high-top models predict greater warming in the tropical upper troposphere due to increased greenhouse gases for all periods considered: up to 0.28 K/decade more in the period 2050-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Larger polar lower-stratospheric cooling is seen in high-top models: -1.64 K/decade compared to -1.40 K/decade in the period 1960-2000, mainly in response to ozone depletion, and -0.41 K/decade compared to -0.12 K/decade in the period 2050-2098, mainly in response to increases in greenhouse gases. Analysis suggests that there may be a linear relationship between the trend in jet position and meridional temperature gradient, even under strong forcing. There were no clear indications of an approach to a geometric limit on the absolute magnitude of the poleward shift by 2100.

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km. The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10–50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency, precipitation intensity, and quantiles of the frequency distribution. For mean precipitation, the models reproduce the characteristics of the annual cycle and the spatial distribution. The domain mean bias varies between −23% and +3% in winter and between −27% and −5% in summer. Larger errors are found for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16–42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models. Similar intermodel differences are found for other European subregions. Interestingly, the model errors are very similar between the two models with the same dynamical core (but different parameterizations) and they differ considerably between the two models with similar parameterizations (but different dynamics). Despite considerable biases, the models reproduce prominent mesoscale features of heavy precipitation, which is a promising result for their use in climate change downscaling over complex topography.